Opinion Polls 2024 : The world largest democracy India will elect its fresh government in coming weeks. Many election surveys such as Times Now Opinion polls 2024, CNN News 18 Opinion Polls 2024 have predicted their latest numbers which suggests a significant edge to NDA. Although, these survey gives do gives you an hint of ground situation. But sometimes they do not able to gaze the actual condition. Lets find out the how opinion polls has fared in last 4 general elections i.e 20 years.
What is the difference between Opinion Polls and Exit polls ?
As name suggest Opinion polls are just opinion gazed by the survey agencies. These are done weeks before the actual polls and and it get changed over the time. While an Exit Poll is an another kind of poll conducted by survey agencies of people who are just ‘exiting’ from poll booth. It is believed that significant number of voters are undecided at the last moment. Therefore, the exit polls are believed to get the actual elections result better than opinion polls.
General Election 2019
Last time in 2019, at least four opinion polls or exit polls have suggested more than 300 seats to NDA. While some other have predicted the 242 -287 seats for NDA. However, NDA has won 354 seats, BJP itself gets 303 seats. Congress improves tally from last election but marginally, they ended at 52 seats. After, J L Nehru and Indira Gandhi, PM Modi becomes the 3rd Prime Minister to get in the power with back to back full majority governments.
Exit Polls/ Opinion Polls
India Today-Axis :NDA-352, UPA- 93, Others-82
News24-Today‘s Chanakya: NDA-350, UPA- 95, Others- 97
News18-IPSOS: NDA- 336, UPA, 82, Others-124
Times Now-VMR: NDA- 306,UPA-132,Others- 104
India TV-CNX: 300, UPA-120,Others-122
India News-Polstrat: NDA-287,UPA-128,Others-127
C-Voter: NDA-287,UPA-128,Others-127
ABP-CSDS :NDA-277,UPA-130,Other-135
NewsX-Neta: NDA-242,UPA-164,Others-137
General Election Results 2019
NDA-351,UPA-90,OTHERS-101
BJP-303,CONG-52
General Election 2014 :
In 2014, most of the exit polls were accurate in predicting the pulse of the voters, as they have projected the BJP-led NDA an edge over Congress-led UPA. They have declared a landslide victory for BJP led NDA with 340 seats. NDA actually gets 336 seats, while BJP gets 282 seats alone. This time only one opinion survey by Chanakya gets mood of the nation right. India gets a majority government after 30 years.
2014 Exit Polls / Opinion Polls
CNN-IBN – CSDS–Lokniti : NDA – 276, UPA-97, Others-148
India Today–Cicero : NDA-272, UPA-115, Others- 156
News 24–Chanakya : NDA-340, UPA-70, Others-133
Times Now–ORG : NDA-249, UPA-148, Others- 146
ABP News–Nielsen: NDA-274, UPA-97, Others-165
NDTV–Hansa Research : NDA-279, UPA-103, Others-161
General Election Results 2014 :
NDA-336, UPA-66, Others-147
BJP-282, Congress-44
General Election 2009 :
In 2009, BJP led NDA was hoping to get the power back from Congress as whole world was reeling under great recession of 2008. Most of the opinion polls have predicted an neck to neck contest between the two grand alliances. Congress led UPA was best projected to get 205 only. But results were shocking for all, UPA won 262 seats marginally short of magic number of 272. NDA gets 159 seats while BJP’s individual tally reduced to 116 seats. This time again NDA was front runner for the pollsters, but eventually UPA turned out to be a biggest alliance.
Exit Polls/Opinion Polls 2019
CNN-IBN – Dainik Bhaskar: UPA 185–205, NDA 165–185, Third Front 110–130, Fourth Front 25–35
Star-Nielsen : UPA 199, NDA 196, Third Front 100, Fourth Front 36
India TV – C Voter : UPA 189–201, NDA 183–195, Third Front 105–121
General Election Results 2009:
UPA-262, NDA-159, Third Front-79, Fourth Front-27
Congress-206, BJP-116
General Elections 2004 :
NDA was hoping to repeat the government under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. They were so confidant that BJP has preponed the polls with ‘India Shining’ as a slogan. All opinion polls are projecting then as biggest alliance. But surprisingly, UPA turned out to be the biggest alliance with 208 seats. Congress itself got 145 seats while BJP was restricted to 138 seats. This time no opinion poll gets it right.
Opinion Polls /Exit Polls 2004 :
NDTV-AC Nielsen : NDA 230-250, Congress 190-205, Others 100-120
Aajtak ORG-MARG : NDA 248, Congress-190, Others-105
StarNews C-Voter : NDA 263-275, Congress 174-186, Others 86-98
2004 Actual Results:
UPA-208, NDA-181, Left Front-59
Congress-145, BJP-138
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